German Researchers: Drought Has Dissipated Nationwide
A recent report from German researchers reveals that the prolonged period of drought that has plagued the country since 2018 has finally come to an end. Andreas Marx, the director of the Drought Monitor at the Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ) in Leipzig, stated that “the drought has dissipated, and it is no longer a nationwide problem.” This news comes as a relief after years of extreme dryness causing significant damage to the environment, particularly the forests, and raising concerns about water supply.
Climate Change and Drought
Marx, a climate researcher, highlighted that drought is classified as an extreme event, and like all extreme events, it eventually subsides. He noted that Germany is more accustomed to dealing with floods or storms that last for a few hours or days, not a multi-year drought of this magnitude. The intensity of this drought is unprecedented since 1867. Marx emphasized that “we were simply ill-prepared for such a prolonged drought.”
Improving Conditions
While some regions in eastern Saxony, Brandenburg, and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern still experience drier soil, Marx explained that the situation has improved in most parts of the country. One reason for this improvement is the above-average rainfall in 2023, which was approximately 40% higher than the long-term average. However, as one moves further east, the surplus decreases due to slower water penetration in clay-rich or loamy soils.
The Drought Monitor
This positive development has prompted researchers to review the Drought Monitor, a calculation model for soil moisture. Marx acknowledged that some inaccuracies have been identified, such as the systematic underestimation of rainfall at one station in Hannover-Langenhagen, leading to a false indication of an ongoing drought. However, Marx emphasized that the widespread dissipation of drought is excellent news for forestry, agriculture, and water management. The current soil moisture level provides a favorable outlook for these sectors in 2024, significantly reducing the likelihood of a critical situation.
Implications for Agriculture
While the overall situation has improved, Marx cautioned that making predictions about summer conditions for agriculture remains challenging. The success of summer crops depends on rainfall between April and October, making it impossible to forecast accurately. He deemed it “absurd” and more akin to lobbying when industry associations issue warnings of another drought summer in the spring.
This development signifies a turning point for Germany, as the nation bids farewell to the extreme drought that has plagued its lands for several years. It serves as a reminder of the importance of adapting to the changing climate and implementing sustainable practices to mitigate the impacts of future droughts.
